Maybe entrepreneurial success is driven by luck in the same way that home runs in baseball are: Barry Bonds can swing 100 times and not hit a home run, but he's still a way better home run hitter than I am, in that he can hit home runs at all.
This article is kind of like saying that some baseball players overestimate their own skills and underestimate the effects of luck when they hit a home run. But you don't see people writing articles like that because hitting a home run is more obviously difficult than starting a successful company, and you have a lot more data with home runs than you do with companies.
Whenever there's an article like this, it can be tempting to conclude either: 1) "it's just a crapshoot, what's the point of playing the lottery?" 2) "it's just a crapshoot, anyone could have done Facebook." But the fact is luck is involved in everything - so perhaps a better takeaway is: 1) I need more practice and 2) I need more at bats.
This article is kind of like saying that some baseball players overestimate their own skills and underestimate the effects of luck when they hit a home run. But you don't see people writing articles like that because hitting a home run is more obviously difficult than starting a successful company, and you have a lot more data with home runs than you do with companies.
Whenever there's an article like this, it can be tempting to conclude either: 1) "it's just a crapshoot, what's the point of playing the lottery?" 2) "it's just a crapshoot, anyone could have done Facebook." But the fact is luck is involved in everything - so perhaps a better takeaway is: 1) I need more practice and 2) I need more at bats.